Report Compiled: 2020-05-20

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: c6a8d4d Max Data Date: 2020-05-19

NYT Repo Commit: 8286df7 Max Data Date: 2020-05-19

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-30 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 669.9339 888.0665 1256.6367
2020-06-30 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 588.7857 798.5163 1262.2798
2020-06-30 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 984.1502 1405.1052 1978.1072
2020-06-30 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 703.4531 1127.6313 1895.1047
2020-06-30 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 546.3112 852.5972 1618.4772
2020-06-30 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 514.5609 1047.8498 3876.8449
2020-06-30 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 919.8199 1367.6567 2307.1868
2020-06-30 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 638.6625 1069.5510 3000.1913
2020-06-30 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 536.7473 718.6048 1003.0015
2020-06-30 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 470.9303 669.6240 1110.1666
2020-06-30 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 905.1202 1266.6825 1842.1310
2020-06-30 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 639.8885 928.2013 1615.8667
2020-06-30 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 589.8311 807.5257 1164.0948
2020-06-30 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 493.3162 649.4013 1057.0564
2020-06-30 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 985.2455 1312.7089 1932.6484
2020-06-30 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 584.3191 860.6192 1491.2743
2020-06-03 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 367.7646 518.4802 703.6245
2020-06-03 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 399.2154 529.9695 711.1942
2020-06-03 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 445.2149 564.9267 715.7043
2020-06-03 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 402.4515 518.8225 756.6388